Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said the US central bank may be able to cease interest-rate increases, barring any surprises in the economy, though rates would need to stay at their current elevated levels for some time.
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said the US central bank may be able to cease interest-rate increases, barring any surprises in the economy, though rates would need to stay at their current elevated levels for some time.
“Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work,” Harker said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Philadelphia Business Journal.
“Should we be at that point where we can hold steady, we will need to be there for a while,” Harker, who votes on monetary policy decisions this year, said. “I do not foresee any likely circumstance for an immediate easing of the policy rate.”
The Fed in July raised its benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. That followed a decision to hold rates steady in June, a move officials said was part of a strategy to slow the pace of increases as they approach the peak. They next meet to discuss policy Sept. 19-20.
Not all officials are unified behind the idea that the Fed could soon be done with rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday reiterated her view that they may need to raise rates further in order to fully restore price stability.
Officials will have more key economic data in hand before the September policy meeting, including another jobs report and a fresh reading on consumer prices due Thursday. Investors do not currently expect another rate hike this year, based on prices of futures contracts.
Harker said he expects the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation, based on the personal consumption expenditures price index, to fall to an annual rate slightly below 4% by the end of 2023, and to below 3% by next year, reaching the Fed’s 2% target in 2025.
“I expect only a modest slowdown in economic activity to go along with a slow but sure disinflation,” he said. “In other words, I do see us on the flight path to the soft landing we all hope for and that has proved quite elusive in the past.”
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