Positive earnings surprises are being cheered more than usual by stock investors this reporting season as an ultra-dire outlook for Corporate America so far fails to materialize.
(Bloomberg) — Positive earnings surprises are being cheered more than usual by stock investors this reporting season as an ultra-dire outlook for Corporate America so far fails to materialize.
US companies in both the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 indexes posting stronger-than-expected results have seen their share prices notch higher early into the first-quarter earnings season.
Companies in the S&P 500 that beat estimates have outperformed the index by an average 2% over the past two weeks, higher than the historical average of 1.5%, Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Savita Subramanian said in a note Monday. Meanwhile, those that missed got a “free pass” and underperformed by a narrower 0.9%, compared to the usual average 2.4% decline for misses.
“Everyone was cautious heading into this earnings season,” Subramanian said in the note. “As a result, companies that surprised to the upside were rewarded more than usual.”
The biggest bullish reactions to earnings beats have come from auto dealer Carmax Inc., whose shares logged a same-day pop of 9.6% when it reported on April 11, and casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp., which jumped 3.7% when it released results on April 19. The benchmark S&P 500 was unchanged on those two trading sessions.
RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina also pointed out Monday that names in the Russell 1000 have seen a similar trend this quarter, with those beating earnings estimates outperforming the broader market slightly more than in previous seasons, while misses are getting hit less hard.
According to RBC, performance of Russell 1000 and 2000 companies with US-only exposure is also starting to improve, catching up to companies with high international exposure, which have outperformed in recent months.
Monday marks the start of the busiest week for earnings season, with roughly 40% of the S&P 500 on deck to deliver results. Of 88 S&P 500 companies comprising roughly 25% of the gauge that have released figures, 63% beat on earnings-per-share and 75% topped sales estimates, more than the historical average beat on both metrics, according to BofA data. The firm said there were 50% more instances of above-consensus guidance than below in April so far.
While BofA noted that “earnings season is a good time to be a stock picker,” the firm warned about the technology sector ahead of closely watched first-quarter results from mega-cap giants. Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. are scheduled to report after market close Tuesday, while Meta Platforms Inc. is on tap for Wednesday.
“Investors cast tech as being insulated from an economic downturn given its secular growth drivers. But we have noted that for the past 1.5 years, consensus earnings for the Nasdaq 100 have lagged those of the S&P 500,” BofA strategists said. “Historically, tech has been more cyclical than the S&P 500 based on frequency of sales declines.”
Read more:
US Earnings Are Off to a Decent Start, RBC Strategists Say
Better-Than-Feared Earnings Has Analysts Rethinking Projections
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Risks to Stocks From Earnings, Fed
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