Less than a year since taking power, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his economic reform agenda will soon be put to the test during Malaysia’s first statewide elections under his unity government.
(Bloomberg) — Less than a year since taking power, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his economic reform agenda will soon be put to the test during Malaysia’s first statewide elections under his unity government.
The Kelantan state assembly dissolved Thursday, paving the way for local polls to be held within 60 days. Five states will closely follow suit, with the contests shaping up as a referendum on Anwar since he took office in the wake of Malaysia’s most divisive general election. Anwar’s alliance controls three of the six poll-bound states.
The elections could decide if Anwar will stay on in power as head of the coalition that set aside decades of rivalry to form the government last November. Anwar commands a two-thirds majority in parliament, but if the ruling parties fare badly at the state level, he and his policies targeting subsidies and reducing mounting public debt may be at risk if his allies reassess their support.
“Losing even just one state would be horrible. In fact, reduced seats in their states are also worrisome,” said Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, an associate professor of political science at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. If the federal opposition alliance wins big, this might put pressure on Anwar and may again jeopardize the sentiment of stability, she said.
On the flip side, maintaining the status quo is a public sign of approval for Anwar, said Wong Chin Huat, a professor of political science at Sunway University. “He would be able to focus on business of the federal government and at least for now bury the talks” of defections, he said.
Of the states up for contest, Anwar’s coalition governs Selangor, Malaysia’s richest and most industrialized state; Penang, the nation’s hub for electronics; and Negeri Sembilan on the southwest coast. Their main rival is Perikatan Nasional, a pro-Malay federal opposition alliance that made significant gains in the general election after some of its members amplified divisive narratives on race and religion.
Perikatan Nasional is upbeat about its prospects. The grouping’s chairman Muhyiddin Yassin — who last year narrowly lost the premiership to Anwar — said on Sunday there was a “wave of youth and people who wish to make a change in the coming state elections,” and that would translate to votes for their alliance.
Should this happen, it would mark a “true demographic shift toward political conservatism,” said Syaza Farhana. The pact’s biggest component party, the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party, has consistently called for the strengthening of Shariah laws and received criticism from rights groups for enacting laws which they say discriminate against minorities.
It’s still too early to make a call on who has the upper hand going into the polls, with many variables at play, according to Wong. This includes voter turnout as well as Anwar and the unity government’s appeal toward the Malay base, he said.
Bread and butter issues are set to be a major theme in the elections, as households and small businesses grapple with still-elevated inflation and a weak ringgit. The currency is trading at a near seven-month low against the dollar, raising the costs of some necessities for the country.
Data shows public sentiment toward the economy has dipped as of May, even as respondents said their voting preferences stayed the same, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli said in response to a question from Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Only about 30% of the voters in the coming polls are fence-sitters, he estimated.
The message the government wants to send out is that its dealing with complex legacy problems, but is taking steps to tackle them, said Rafizi. This week, he unveiled a 500-million ringgit ($108 million) initiative allowing Malaysians to apply directly with his ministry for funding of small public infrastructure projects.
It’s still unclear if the government’s message is getting across to voters.
“They had some initiatives but people don’t feel the difference in terms of daily expenditures,” Syaza Farhana said. “For businesses, they feel the government is not doing enough to help them.”
The voting public aren’t the only ones the government has to win over. The ruling parties’ grassroots members must learn to cooperate and campaign together — no easy feat as the state polls mark their electoral debut as allies.
The situation makes for some “awkward moments when I have to welcome the person who protested against me,” Communications and Digital Minister Fahmi Fadzil said in an interview earlier this month.
But they’re working hard to overcome their differences, he said. “While some have described it as a forced marriage and an unhappy marriage, if we were to extend that analogy, marriage is a sacred institution — one which we will protect, cultivate,” Fahmi said.
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