Meloni to Tell Biden Privately That Italy Plans Break With China

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking to build up a relationship with Joe Biden by pledging to break with China and plans to brief the US president in person Thursday on the delicate choreography of that split.

(Bloomberg) — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking to build up a relationship with Joe Biden by pledging to break with China and plans to brief the US president in person Thursday on the delicate choreography of that split.

Officials in Rome have been privately reassuring the US that she will exit a controversial investment pact with China, yet Meloni is not planning to go public on her decision to pull out during her short trip to Washington, according to people familiar with her thinking who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The idea is that the US will interpret the distancing from Beijing as proof of loyalty and that the White House will understand that taking more time for the long-expected announcement will help Italy to negotiate a friendly exit, limit trade retaliation and show that Meloni is driving the decision.

Officials in Rome are concerned that if she goes public with such a sensitive decision, on US soil no less, it would make her look weak, the people said. China’s Global Times newspaper, run by the Communist Party, has already suggested that Italy withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative is because of pressure from Washington.

Italy, like much of Europe, has been caught in the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, which have been exacerbated by Beijing’s support for Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The always difficult balancing act of how to stay close to the US while not alienating China has become that much harder, both economically and geopolitically.

An official invitation to the White House is common courtesy for Italian prime ministers. Her predecessor Mario Draghi, a widely-revered technocrat, was hosted by Biden in 2022. The populist Giuseppe Conte shook hands with Donald Trump in 2018 while Matteo Renzi, of the center left democratic party, had dinner with Barack Obama in 2016.

Meloni’s visit to the White House lawns comes as she gears up for Italy to take over the presidency of the Group of Seven next year and she expects relations with China to be the most important topic of conversation.

Italy signed up to the BRI in 2019 under China-friendly premier Conte, making it an outlier among the G-7. The pact has posed persistent questions about where Rome’s main loyalties lies and is due to renew automatically at the end of the year if no action is taken.

For months, Meloni has been trying to work out how to wriggle out of the commitment without provoking retaliation from Beijing. Italian officials say they see just how closely Beijing is scrutinizing their next move.

Meloni’s team plans to finesse Italy’s withdrawal by promising China other exclusive investment deals, according to people familiar with the plans, and the Italian leader plans to loop Biden into her strategy.

Meloni leads the social-conservative and nationalist Brothers of Italy party that has a very different ideology from the Democrat Biden — and yet the two leaders struck up an unexpected rapport of sorts, sharing a hug during the G-7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan.

Meloni still hasn’t decided exactly how clearly she’ll speak on the China issue when she faces reporters after the Biden meeting. Italian officials said that the two sides have been in close contact for months preparing the encounter to ensure there are no surprises.

For Meloni, the visit to the US capital is as much about recognition as the content of her discussions with Biden. She wants a bigger seat at the table.

Russia’s war on Ukraine will also be on the agenda and that’s an issue Meloni feels strongly about given that her domestic situation means the careful management of tricky coalition partners sympathetic to Russia.

Since taking office last year, Meloni has unequivocally condemned Putin and sent military aid to Kyiv. Yet she’s also been left out of the inner circle of European leaders and that has been a source of irritation for Italy.

When Yevgeny Prigozhin was marching his mercenary army toward Moscow, Biden held a call with the UK, France and Germany and Meloni felt excluded. Italian officials said she will raise the issue with Biden and ask to be treated as an equal to France and Germany.

The Italian delegation is expecting to be probed on exactly how far it’s willing to extend military support to Ukraine while Meloni also plans to push Biden for clarification on Ukraine’s NATO membership.

And in turn, it will be pressing its counterparts on nuggets of insight into the 2024 presidential race already in full swing, with polls pointing to a rematch of Biden and Trump. For Meloni, as with other Europeans, a change of guard will require yet another recalibration of her economic statecraft.

–With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Jenny Leonard and Zoe Schneeweiss.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com