Confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing for the economy, according to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics.
(Bloomberg) — Confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing for the economy, according to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics.
Nearly 70% of economists were at least somewhat optimistic the Fed can bring inflation down to its 2% target without spurring a recession. That marks a big reversal in sentiment since NABE’s March survey, which showed a similar share indicating they were skeptical of avoiding a downturn.
Nearly three in four respondents said current monetary policy is about right, up from nearly 60% in the March survey.
Almost three-fourths of respondents see inflation above 3% by the end of the year. Some 56% say it takes a year to 18 months for changes in monetary policy to impact the economy.
Economists are growing more confident the US can avoid a recession for now or skirt one altogether because inflation is moderating and the labor market remains firm. While some sectors are flashing signs of trouble, consumers — the main engine of the economy — are still spending.
The July 28-Aug. 7 survey included responses from 167 NABE members.
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