A selloff in tech stocks weighed heavily on trading Wednesday, with the most-recent string of Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the idea that interest rates will need to keep climbing to quash inflation.
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in tech stocks weighed heavily on trading Wednesday, with the most-recent string of Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the idea that interest rates will need to keep climbing to quash inflation.
While it’s all going to be data-dependent as Jerome Powell has signaled, markets remain vulnerable to rate volatility, said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams noted that policy may need to be restrictive for a while. The remarks were echoed by his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari as well as Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook.
A shift in sentiment is emerging in rate options — where several big wagers on the Fed’s rate reaching 6% — have popped up. That’s nearly a percentage point higher than consensus. For several market observers, that hawkish positioning makes it tough for equities to keep grinding higher — especially after the rally in the S&P 500 that had brought the gauge to overbought territory.
Another aspect is that while Powell has refrained from pushing back on the stock surge that has contributed to a recent easing in financial conditions, other policymakers are embracing tougher talk to put a lid on gains. That’s the perception of Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. She says the recent rally in the face of worsening earnings and economic expectations has produced “massive disconnects” that threaten market stability.
“Even though we shifted early this year from ‘cautious’ to ‘cautiously constructive,’ adding back to stocks for the first time in 18 months, we continue to expect market volatility ahead as news flow on earnings, inflation, the economy and Fed bounces from bullish to bearish and back again,” wrote Stephen Auth, chief investment officer of equities at Federated Hermes.
The S&P 500 almost wiped out its Tuesday’s rally. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed, with Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. down 8% on concern that its new artificial intelligence chatbot Bard may yield inaccurate responses. Some other megacaps like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. also slumped, while Microsoft Corp.’s gains put the software giant’s market value near $2 trillion.
To Troy Gayeski at FS Investments, it will be a challenging environment for equities and fixed income for quite some time.
“When you think of equity markets, we think it’s going to be a choppy, sloppy mess as far as the eye can see,” he said. “It’s been a buoyant start to the year. And when you actually scratch your head, what’s actually causing it? The thing to remember is the most powerful rallies are always in bear markets because people underinvest and you have short covering that starts, and you start to suck people in to new bullish narratives.”
Corporate Highlights:
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s key measure of sales fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, showing that stubbornly high inflation is having an impact on the burrito chain’s operations.
- Yum! Brands Inc. reported profit that exceeded estimates as the company’s Taco Bell business pulled in consumers who may be trading down due to inflation.
- Uber Technologies Inc. reported revenue that beat estimates, suggesting rising inflation hasn’t kept consumers from ordering more takeout or hailing a ride.
- Under Armour Inc. raised its profit forecast after a strong holiday season and better-than-expected inventory management.
Elsewhere, Turkey’s stock exchange suspended trading for the first time in 24 years following a selloff that erased billions of dollars from the value of its main equities gauge in the wake of two devastating earthquakes. Trading in Turkish equities, futures and option contracts will resume on Feb. 15.
Key events:
- US initial jobless claims, Thursday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in EU leaders summit, Thursday
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before Treasury Committee, Thursday
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- Fed’s Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 2:45 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
- The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.0723
- The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2072
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 131.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $22,850.56
- Ether fell 1.4% to $1,644.88
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.65%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.36%
- Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.31%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $78.47 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,889 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Peyton Forte, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
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