Stocks and bonds floundered after Wall Street lost faith that a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking cycle was a given.
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds floundered after Wall Street lost faith that a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking cycle was a given.
Swaps traders are now pricing in a one-in-10 chance there will be another interest rate hike at the next Fed meeting in June, after odds had been tilted in favor a pause earlier in the week.
The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.3% while the Nasdaq 100 eked out a 0.6% advance. Early in the session gains were stamped out Friday after a preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey showed consumers expect prices to rise at a 3.2% annual rate over the next five to 10 years, a 12-year high. Bank stocks were weak with PacWest Bancorp dropping 3.0% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. sliding 1.4%.
A renewed call to raise the debt limit from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen added to investor consternation Friday. “If Congress fails to do that, it really impairs our credit rating,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We have to default on some obligation, whether it’s Treasuries or payments to Social Security recipients.”
The debt-ceiling standoff and hawkish comments from Fed officials kept stocks in a tight range this week as investors await a signal the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is at an end. US data Thursday showed initial jobless claims reached the highest since October 2021 while producer prices rose less than economists expected, raising hopes policy may finally be having an effect.
“This market has been flat because we’re in this world where we know the risk of recession is high, but we’re not seeing the whites of the eyes of it in hard data, and that’s why we continue to have this sideways chop,” Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at Newedge Wealth, said Friday on Bloomberg Television.
Wall Street has been eying 4,200 as a key resistance level for the S&P 500. The risk is that the market moves higher, according to Dawson. “The technicals, the sentiment positioning could get us above that and really make it a very big pain trade,” he said.
Inflation is still too high, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in PBS interview. “You don’t want to land the plane nose down. So we’re trying to balance off — can we slow the inflation without sending it into a recession.”
Goolsbee’s comments followed those of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman who said the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further if price pressures don’t cool.
Yields on the policy-sensitive two-year climbed to 3.99% while the 10-year rose to 3.46% Friday.
Solar stocks outperformed with First Solar Inc. leading a rally after new guidance on a clean energy tax credit increase.
The dollar notched its biggest weekly gain since February as investors embraced its safe haven status while Bitcoin dropped below $27,000.
In emerging markets, attention is turning to Turkey’s elections Sunday. Banking stocks rallied in Istanbul, notching their best weekly performance since 2002, when incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Ak Party rose to power. Some investors expect the opposition to restore more orthodox monetary policy should it gain power.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
- The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
- The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0852
- The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2451
- The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 135.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 2% to $26,477.8
- Ether fell 0.2% to $1,792.56
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.46%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.28%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.78%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $70.10 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,017.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Allegra Catelli and Anchalee Worrachate.
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