Taiwan’s spy chief warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s moves to surround himself with a coterie of like-minded officials increases the risk of conflict over the island at the heart of US-China tensions.
(Bloomberg) — Taiwan’s spy chief warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s moves to surround himself with a coterie of like-minded officials increases the risk of conflict over the island at the heart of US-China tensions.
Gaming out the black box that is Xi’s government means Taiwan is increasingly exchanging information with the “Five Eyes” spy bloc in real time to understand China’s military plans, Tsai Ming-yen, the director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, recently told lawmakers.
Xi “doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system,” Tsai said in an interview with Bloomberg, citing personnel moves at key Communist Party meetings over the past year. That means “the risk of making a wrong decision will become much higher.”
Surging tensions over Taiwan have driven a spate of diplomacy across the Indo-Pacific by both Beijing and Washington. Xi’s government accuses the US of building alliances to encircle China, while the US says Beijing’s vast claims to the South China Sea and its military buildup aimed at Taiwan undermine security in the region.
Working with other partners who have key intelligence to share is critical, Tsai said.
“We do share some information with our international friends,” Tsai, who isn’t related to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, told Bloomberg before his presentation to lawmakers. “They also share information with us. So we do have a kind of cooperation with our international friends on China’s military movements.”
The intelligence chief declined to provide details of the conversations or contingency planning but said the work was continuing and aimed at preventing any conflict. The “Five Eyes” bloc is made up of the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
Laying out the costs for Xi in a united coalition “could be a very important way for us to have some influence on China’s policy thinking or even policy action,” he said.
Seeing a rising threat from China, Taiwan has extended mandatory military service for its citizens, sought out satellite-powered communications systems in case of attack and finalized deals for new weapons including anti-ship missiles and F-16 jets.
But competing against the world’s second-biggest economy is a near-impossible task.
“They are improving their capacity,” Tsai said, adding that China’s recent, large-scale exercises around Taiwan are “sort of rehearsals for different military options.” Taipei has been bulking up its defense to make sure it will be difficult for China to “swallow Taiwan,” he said.
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Beijing has long declared Taiwan to be part of China and Xi’s government considers the self-governing island to be a national security priority. While saying it has no plans to invade, Beijing also won’t rule out the use of force to retake the island.
The US says Xi wants the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to attack by 2027, but top American officials add that they don’t see any invasion as imminent and aren’t saying that they expect an attack then.
“I think everybody is guessing” on timelines, Admiral John Aquilino, head of US Indo-Pacific command, testified before Congress last month.
Yet Xi’s norm-breaking third term as president has fueled speculation that he will continue to ramp up the pressure to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland. At last year’s Communist Party Congress and at the National People’s Congress this year, Xi tightened his control of key party and government roles, ensuring he is surrounded by more close allies.
That doesn’t mean Xi is only hearing one point of view. The most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has shown himself able to pivot on key issues when needed, such as when protests quickly built up against his nation’s Covid zero policies late last year, or when his envoy in Paris questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet states.
Tsai, a former diplomat who assumed his role in February, declined to weigh in on a timeframe for any potential invasion but noted the importance of the year 2027 for Xi politically and for his military modernization efforts.
“They hope they can get ready, in terms of their capacity, in that year,” he said of the PLA, adding that Xi would possibly be aiming for a fourth presidential term as well that year.
“I’m not saying that in that year, China will definitely do something,” Tsai said. “But if you look at long-term military modernization of China’s program and the political meaning of 2027, we do need to stay on very high alert.”
Whether and when the Chinese leader decides to take any action on Taiwan doesn’t just depend on his military, Tsai added. Xi will likely be preoccupied with domestic issues, including ensuring the Chinese economy rebounds after the Covid years, he said.
Xi “is facing uncertainty in China’s society, economically and socially,” Tsai said. “I think that will consume a lot of energy of Xi Jinping in the months or years to come.”
–With assistance from Miaojung Lin.
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