Ukraine’s long-awaited assault against Russian troops in the occupied south kicks off a new stage in the war as Kyiv seeks to persuade its allies that it can take back lost territory.
(Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s long-awaited assault against Russian troops in the occupied south kicks off a new stage in the war as Kyiv seeks to persuade its allies that it can take back lost territory.
With Moscow also stepping up a long-range missile campaign, both sides are intensifying their attacks as Kyiv seeks a decisive breakthrough on the ground and Russia aims to cripple Ukraine’s economy.
Ukrainian units fresh from NATO-style training and outfitted with some of the alliance’s best weapons are engaging Kremlin forces that have complained of losses, poor training and a lack of supplies.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War think tank said that Ukrainian armored units may have broken through some of Russia’s defensive lines, and a US official said Ukrainian troops were making a significant push in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. Russian officials also reported a major assault.
“Our boys at the front had very good results today,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his evening address on Wednesday, without elaborating. “Well done! Details later.”
Ukraine has spent months preparing an arsenal upgraded with billions of dollars of NATO weaponry. Since launching the broad counteroffensive more than seven weeks ago, its forces have struggled to fight through Russian minefields, tank barriers and other defenses without significant air support. While Kyiv has pounded Russian command centers, supply lines and artillery batteries, they’ve made only slow gains on the front lines.
After difficult talks with his western backers over Ukraine’s path to NATO at a summit in Vilnius, Zelenskiy is now trying to show that, given the right weapons and in sufficient amounts, he can deliver on his pledge to eject the invaders.
Russia, meanwhile, is intensifying attacks against grain terminals after exiting a deal that, for a year, had allowed Kyiv to export at least some wheat and other cereals from Black Sea ports. The barrages follow battlefield setbacks for President Vladimir Putin, who has dismissed top military commanders and faced last month’s failed mutiny by the Wagner Mercenary group at home.
The Kremlin has resorted to the bombing strategy because that’s where it enjoys an advantage, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
The strikes also serve other objectives: They deplete Ukraine’s air defenses, satisfy calls for more decisive action in Moscow, and serve as a reminder that Russia can devastate its neighbor’s economic development no matter how much territory Ukraine takes back.
“It’s clear now that Western partners are fine with strengthening Ukrainian air and missile defense capabilities, which is progress, of course,” Bielieskov said. “But whether such a strictly defensive mode is feasible mid and long term, as Russia adjusts and increases production of drones and missiles is an open question.”
On the ground, the push in Zaporizhzhia follows admissions from Ukrainian officials that the counteroffensive has been more difficult than expected. At the same time, Kyiv and western military officials have pointed to a strategy of wearing down undermanned Russian units across the 1,500 kilometer (900-mile) front.
The approach includes holding back the main assault force so that it can exploit weak spots and break through Russian lines. In the past Ukraine has also employed feints to disguise the main thrust, as when it attacked in the south before achieving a major breakthrough and retaking territory in the north of the country last fall.
Until this week, Ukraine had used only part of the 12 brigades it amassed over the winter and spring for the counteroffensive. Now it’s unclear how many more have been committed and how their first main push is going.
“We said throughout that this would be a tough fight,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters Thursday at a news conference in Papua New Guinea. “They’ve been working their way to get through the minefields and other obstacles, but they still have a lot of combat power.”
Reports from Russian military bloggers and geolocated satellite images gave a mixed picture. War Gonzo, a Telegram channel which has almost 1.3 million subscribers, said Ukrainian forces had advanced northeast of Robotyne – a village in Zaporizhzhia region — after “massive artillery strikes.”
Others described the front as stable, while a Ukraine embassy official, who asked not to be identified, warned against framing any part of the counteroffensive as decisive and described the war as a long series of operations.
Putin confirmed on Thursday that “hostilities have been significantly intensified,” and said the vast majority of armored vehicles deployed by Ukraine had been destroyed.
“All counteroffensive attempts were stopped, the enemy was driven back with heavy losses,” he said. It was not possible to verify Putin’s claims on Ukrainian casualties, which have in the past proved false.
While Putin said Ukrainian forces were trying to reclaim their dead and wounded from the battlefield on Thursday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said fierce fighting was still underway.
Russia’s missile campaign has also caused significant damage, destroying 26 buildings at ports and five vessels since last week, according to Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov. Targets included the Danube port of Reni, which was being revived to handle about 11 million tonnes of grain a year following strikes on other sites.
Along with the smaller river ports of Izmail and Ust-Dunaisk, it has become increasingly important to Kyiv’s attempts to circumvent the de facto blockade of its Black Sea ports. Russia had prevented shipments by slow-walking ship inspections required by the export deal, even before refusing to renew it.
In May alone, the Danube ports shipped a record 3 million tonnes of cargo. It may be difficult to sustain those shipments under the threat of cruise missile attacks.
Zelenskiy said in his address he had discussed ways of restoring “calm” to the Black Sea region, with Ukraine’s backers in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
–With assistance from Daryna Krasnolutska.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.