Ukraine’s growing need for fresh military equipment and ammunition will dominate the conversation when world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference, which opens Friday. EU and NATO officials have been stepping up calls for an urgent boost in arms production to address looming shortfalls.
(Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s growing need for fresh military equipment and ammunition will dominate the conversation when world leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference, which opens Friday. EU and NATO officials have been stepping up calls for an urgent boost in arms production to address looming shortfalls.
The UK Defense Ministry estimated that some 175,000 to 200,000 Russian forces have been killed or wounded since the invasion, with the death toll somewhere between 40,000 and 60,000. A UK-based think tank said Moscow may also have lost half of its main battle tanks in the past year.
(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)
Key Developments
- The Post-Cold War Era Is Gone. A New Arms Race Has Arrived
- Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
- Putin’s War to Lop $190 Billion Off Economy in Delayed Reckoning
- Putin’s Invasion Shows World’s War Machine Needs More Ammunition
- EBRD Warns on Sanctions Busting as Russia Neighbors’ Trade Booms
On the Ground
Russia launched 41 missiles at Ukraine over the past day, including five on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Facebook, adding that 16 rockets were shot down. Five civilians died and nine were injured on Thursday in Bakhmut, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on Telegram, calling for the 6,000 people who remain in the eastern town to evacuate immediately.
(All times CET)
Finnish Lawmakers Set to Wrap Up Domestic NATO Process (12 p.m.)
Finland’s parliament is moving ahead with the domestic process to ratify the Nordic country’s accession to NATO, even as approval from Turkey and Hungary has yet to be received. Lawmakers are tentatively set to vote on the bill Feb. 28, according to Jussi Halla-aho, chairman of the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.
Lawmakers in Helsinki are moving ahead now to ensure the process is completed before they go on a break ahead of the April 2 general election, Halla-aho said at a news conference in Helsinki. After the parliament’s plenary votes on approving the bill, President Sauli Niinisto has three months to sign the document, and membership in the alliance begins when all ratifications are completed and the document is deposited in Washington.
Finnish Lawmakers to Wrap Up NATO Entry as Holdouts Remain
European Gas Falls Below €50 (8:30 a.m.)
European natural gas futures slumped below €50 ($53.21) for the first time in 17 months, as the region’s worst energy crisis in decades recedes. Prices have plunged by more than 80% from their August peak when Russia’s gas cuts hit Europe with about $1 trillion in costs.
European Gas Falls Below €50 as Historic Energy Crisis Recedes
Ukraine Confiscates Deripaska’s Property (8:15 a.m.)
Ukraine’s top anti-corruption court ordered the confiscation of United Co. Rusal International PJSC’s key aluminum plant and other assets owned by Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, as part of sanctions imposed by the government, according to a Justice Ministry statement. Last month, the ministry filed a claim to take the Mykolayiv refinery into state ownership. The plant has been offline since early March following Russia’s invasion and subsequent bombardment of the southern city.
Ukraine says Deripaska is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and controls companies, including Rusal, that produce armored vehicles that Russian forces are using to fight in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Economy May Climb 2% In 2023, Official Says (8 a.m.)
Ukraine’s gross domestic product may grow by 2% this year, if the nation makes more progress in fighting against Russia’s invasion, according to the country’s Economy Ministry. After Ukraine’s economy shrank by slightly more than 30% in 2022, a marginal rebound this year is still possible, but that will depend on military developments, Oleksandr Gryban, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister said.
“We still anticipate moderate growth, should the battlefront and the war continue into Ukraine’s benefit,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. The base-case scenario of Ukraine’s central bank envisages economic growth of 0.3% this year, while the IMF sees the economy rising by 1%. Gryban estimated Ukraine’s needs in funds required to rebuild this year at $6 billion.
Germany’s Uniper Says It Will Overcome Russia Gas Issues By 2024 (7:30 a.m.)
Germany utility Uniper SE said it will overcome the problems generated by Russian gas cuts by 2024 at the latest.
The company — which was nationalized by the German government last year after the energy crisis put it on the brink of collapse — said it will continue to face high gas replacement costs in the next years, according to an earnings report released Friday.
Putin’s War to Lop $190 Billion Off Economy (6 a.m.)
Russia’s economy is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait.
But even as Russia logged its third straight quarter of contraction to end 2022, its downturn for the whole year was a fraction of the almost 10% collapse that was predicted a month after the invasion. The central bank has put last year’s drop at 2.5% and projects growth may resume already this year.
Zelenskiy Says 100 Soldiers and a Civilian Are Returned in Swap (10:11 p.m.)
Ukraine and Russia held another prisoner swap late Thursday, allowing 100 Ukrainian soldiers and one civilian to return home, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address. The civilian, according to Zelenskiy, is the first deputy mayor of Energodar — a town where Russian troop’s hold Europe’s largest nuclear plant.
Among the others released were 94 defenders of Mariupol, many of whom are injured, according to Zelenskiy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. “We continue our work. We will return everyone home,” Yermak said on Telegram.
Ukraine Defense Chief Says It’s Adopting NATO Standards (7:41 p.m.)
Ukraine is committed to implementing NATO standards and is already using the military alliance’s logistics system, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said after meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, according to the Ukrainian military’s media center.
“It’s about minimizing planning time and maximizing the speed of exchanging of logistical plans and reports, both within the Defense Forces of Ukraine and our partners,” Reznikov said. “It’s about transparency, accountability and complete openness on our part.”
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