The worst damage wrought by Russia’s campaign to destroy the Ukrainian energy grid is probably over because of improved air defense and Moscow’s deteriorating ability to strike, the head of the nation’s grid operator said.
(Bloomberg) — The worst damage wrought by Russia’s campaign to destroy the Ukrainian energy grid is probably over because of improved air defense and Moscow’s deteriorating ability to strike, the head of the nation’s grid operator said.
Ukraine’s energy system has been battered by 15 mass bombardments since late September, affecting more than 40% of its energy facilities. Russia’s assault on civilian infrastructure has added to the economic devastation caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion, with households and businesses hit by regular power outages.
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the chief executive officer of NPC Ukrenergo, said that the approaching end of winter will offer relief even as Russia continues to send salvos of missiles and drones to target infrastructure.
“The adversary has largely lost the ability to inflict significant damage,” Kudrytskyi said in an interview Wednesday. Speaking in his office in Kyiv, still damaged by an air strike in October, the CEO lauded Ukraine’s anti-missile capability as well as swift grid repairs by his staff.
Still, “one shouldn’t relax and believe that Russia’s air-strike campaign is over,” he said.
Direct damage to Ukraine’s power grid will run into the “hundreds of millions of dollars,” with economic losses ranging in the “billions,” Kudrytskyi said. A preliminary estimate will emerge in the coming weeks.
Following strikes, Ukrainian repair teams have meanwhile cut the time it takes to replace highly coveted transformers to a quarter of the duration in the fall, Kudrytskyi said.
“At this point we’ve reached a plateau — further degradation is not happening,” he said. “We are able to restore at the same pace as the destruction is made, sometimes even faster.”
As pressure on the energy system eases with rising temperatures, power cuts will persist, with diminished consumption offset by lower generation, the CEO said. Energy facilities will alternate on operational pauses because of scheduled repairs.
“Spring and summer won’t be easy,” Kudrytskyi said. “If the shelling is over and we are provided with an opportunity to restore without interruption, we will likely achieve a long-term non-shortage period, but we can’t rely on that.”
He expressed confidence that Ukraine will amass a sufficient stockpile of auto-transformers by next winter, either domestically produced or from foreign donors. He declined to elaborate on how many are needed.
“Victory on energy hasn’t been achieved yet,” Kudrytskyi.
–With assistance from Gina Turner.
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