Budget, retraites: Bayrou dévoile son jeu pour tenter d’éviter la censure

François Bayrou abat ses cartes mardi, dans sa déclaration de politique générale, sur le budget en même temps que sur les retraites, qui ont fait l’objet d’intenses négociations avec la gauche, pour l’heure sans succès, afin de tenter d’éviter une censure. Suspension, gel ou pause ? Le vocabulaire du Premier ministre par ailleurs agrégé de lettres sera scruté de près quand il prononcera à 15H00 devant l’Assemblée nationale le traditionnel discours du nouvel arrivant à Matignon.Ironie du sort, c’est Elisabeth Borne, ex-Première ministre et auteure de cette réforme contestée des retraites, qui lira en parallèle devant le Sénat le même texte, où pourraient figurer des concessions à sa propre loi, adoptée à l’époque au forceps en utilisant l’article 49.3.La fameuse “DPG”, rédigée par François Bayrou lui-même, aura été précédée par d’intenses négociations qui paraissaient lundi soir dans l’impasse.Le secrétaire général du PS Pierre Jouvet a déploré sur BFMTV l’absence “d’avancée significative” et de “garantie concernant la suspension” de la réforme des retraites réclamée à cor et à cri par la gauche, estimant que François Bayrou s’était fait “rattraper par la patrouille” située “à sa droite”. L’équation reste toujours aussi délicate pour le Premier ministre, engagé dans des tractations avec la gauche non-mélenchoniste, sans pour autant braquer ses alliés Les Républicains et même macronistes, qui haussent le ton face à un possible retour en arrière sur les retraites.- “Inacceptable” -Alors que son prédécesseur Michel Barnier avait tenté en vain d’obtenir une non censure de l’extrême droite, en accédant à plusieurs des demandes du Rassemblement national, François Bayrou mise cette fois sur la gauche et particulièrement les socialistes pour trouver une voie de passage.Sans les voix des socialistes, la France insoumise et le RN ne peuvent pas renverser le gouvernement.Toute la journée de lundi, l’exécutif a multiplié les pourparlers. “Ils donnent l’impression de se démener, mais à la fin c’est maigre”, a résumé auprès de l’AFP la patronne des écologistes Marine Tondelier, qui a échangé par téléphone avec Eric Lombard (Economie), Catherine Vautrin (Travail et Santé) et Amélie de Montchalin (Comptes publics).”Je n’ai toujours pas trop d’arguments susceptibles de ne pas voter la censure”, a-t-elle ajouté.Les dirigeants des communistes, dont Fabien Roussel, ont également échangé avec M. Lombard. Mais ce sont les socialistes qui ont animé la journée, avec une réunion de deux heures lundi soir à Matignon qui s’est donc soldée par un échec.”Au moment où je vous parle, les propositions qui sont sur la table ne sont pas acceptables pour le Parti socialiste et nous le regrettons”, a fait valoir M. Jouvet.De quoi précipiter le PS dans les bras de la censure, puisqu’une motion sera sans nul doute déposée par les Insoumis mardi, dans la foulée de déclaration de politique générale.Si, faute de soutien du Rassemblement national au texte LFI, le gouvernement ne devrait pas tomber dans l’immédiat, l’incapacité de M. Bayrou à rallier le PS jette un doute sur la pérennité de ce gouvernement qui pourrait, comme son prédécesseur, se heurter au mur du vote du budget en cours de négociation.- “Coeur du réacteur” -Au centre des tensions, les socialistes réclament que la suspension de la réforme des retraites soit effective dès le début de la renégociation de la réforme, envisagée pour six mois, et pas uniquement en cas de succès de celle-ci. Si cette pause était techniquement faisable, cela voudrait dire que les personnes nées en 1963 pourraient partir à 62 ans et 6 mois (avec une durée de cotisation de 42 ans et un trimestre) au lieu de 62 ans et 9 mois (avec une durée de 42,5 ans) comme prévu.Mais cette suspension divise le camp présidentiel tandis que la droite menace de quitter le gouvernement. Certains semblent prêts à l’accepter, comme prix de la stabilité politique, à l’instar de Yaël Braun-Pivet qui a affirmé “ne pas être opposée par principe” au fait d'”arrêter” brièvement la réforme des retraites pour en “rediscuter”.D’autres en revanche s’y opposent, faisant valoir son coût, estimé autour de 3 milliards d’euros pour la seule année 2024. “Si demain on atteignait le cÅ“ur du réacteur en termes de rendement budgétaire de cette réforme, alors on mettrait la France, pour le plaisir de la gauche, en danger, notamment budgétaire et financier”, a prévenu lundi soir le ministre Les Républicains de l’Intérieur Bruno Retailleau.Au RN, la députée Laure Lavalette parie que M. Bayrou ne reviendra pas sur les 64 ans et que les Français “devront attendre Marine Le Pen en 2027 pour revenir et abroger cette réforme”

‘Stubborn’ janitor camps out amid rubble of Los Angeles fires

Among the charred ruins of Pacific Palisades, Jeff Ridgway walks his dog Abby as if nothing has happened. Unlike the tens of thousands of people driven out by the wildfires, this janitor refused to evacuate.He has been holed up in his home in this upscale Los Angeles neighborhood for a week now, after defending the building with garden hoses and buckets of water.”It was just a war,” the 67-year-old Californian told AFP, pointing to a blackened eucalyptus tree that he prevented from burning, just in front of the apartment building where he lives and works.”But I was just stubborn. I was like: ‘I’m not going to be defeated by you. I’m sorry, this is just not gonna happen.'”After nearly 35 years living in this complex, Ridgway was determined to save its 18 apartments from the devastating flames.When the city ran out of water to spray, he resorted to scooping bucketloads from the swimming pool.”I just felt like I had a certain responsibility, both to my home and my stuff, but to their stuff,” he said, referring to the building’s tenants.Several fires continue to burn in Los Angeles, where at least 24 people have perished.In Pacific Palisades and across town in Altadena, police and military roadblocks have sealed off the worst-hit regions, even from residents trying to return.- ‘Smudge’ -But Ridgway never left, and does not want to end up in a hotel room or a shelter. So he continues to camp out in his apartment, despite the scenes of desolation outside his windows.The building’s tenants, who did leave, have sent him bottled water and food deliveries, via a kindly police officer.The assorted clementines, tomatoes and other supplies are enough to last “at least two weeks.”He even received fresh socks, and chicken jerky for his dog.”She’s very happy with her food now. And if she’s happy, then I’m pretty happy,” he said, smiling affectionately at his spaniel.Without electricity, he has been wearing the same clothes for days. “I need to get a shower,” admitted Ridgway, his tweed top and jeans caked in soot.”She needs to get a bath too,” he said, referring to his faithful pooch.”I’ve started calling her ‘Smudge,’ because she’s gotten so dirty.”Luckily, Ridgway is no stranger to rudimentary conditions — he recalls with fond nostalgia several rough-and-ready camping trips to the remote Yosemite National Park.- ‘Shangri-la’ -Pacific Palisades captured the heart of this former bookseller many years ago.For him, these hills overlooking the Pacific Ocean are not just a haunt of celebrity residents like Anthony Hopkins — a former “honorary mayor” of the community.”It’s a Shangri-la,” said Ridgway.”It’s also a real community. It’s got a huge history.”The neighborhood is home to the Getty Villa, an ancient Roman-style mansion with a rich collection of classical antiquities.Famed designers Charles and Ray Eames also constructed a studio on the hillsides. With its colorful concrete blocks, it has become a landmark of modern mid-century architecture.So far these gems have survived the flames.But a stone’s throw from Ridgway’s apartment, a mall with ornate facades that dated to 1924 is nothing more than ruins.”Ours is probably one of the older buildings in town now,” sighed the janitor, in his 1950s residence.Every year he looks forward to the July 4th Independence Day celebrations. Last year, the occasion drew tens of thousands of people to Pacific Palisades, where crowds watched as parachutists descended from the sky and landed on Sunset Boulevard.Ridgway is convinced his neighborhood will emerge from the fires to become a paradise once more, for the same reasons he originally fell in love with it.”Each of these lots without a house is still a one or two million dollar lot. It’s definitely going to come back,” he said.”At the end of the day, we still have the mountains right there, we have the ocean right there, and mostly we have a blue sky and good air quality. That’s what will bring people back.”

Blue Origin scrubs key test launch again, eyes Thursday

Blue Origin, the space company founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, called off the inaugural launch of its huge new rocket again on Monday evening after facing weather issues.The company said it would aim for early Thursday morning at the earliest, with a new three-hour window starting at 1:00 am (0600 GMT).An initial test launch of the towering 320-foot (98-meter) rocket, dubbed New Glenn in honor of legendary American astronaut John Glenn, was scrubbed early Monday morning after repeated halts during the countdown.The company later said it had discovered an icing issue on a purge line and would aim for a possible early Tuesday morning launch, but that weather conditions were unfavorable.Shortly after 9:00 pm Monday (0200 GMT Tuesday), Blue Origin announced the launch had been postponed.With the mission, dubbed NG-1, Amazon founder Bezos is taking aim at the only man in the world wealthier than him: fellow tech innovator Elon Musk.Musk’s company SpaceX dominates the orbital launch market through its prolific Falcon 9 rockets, which have become vital for the commercial sector, Pentagon and NASA.”SpaceX has for the past several years been pretty much the only game in town, and so having a competitor… this is great,” G. Scott Hubbard, a retired senior NASA official, told AFP, expecting the competition to drive down costs.Upping the high-stakes rivalry, SpaceX also plans another orbital test later this week of Starship — its gargantuan new-generation rocket.- Landing attempt -When New Glenn does fly, Blue Origin will attempt to land the first-stage booster on a drone ship stationed about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) downrange in the Atlantic Ocean.SpaceX has made such landings now routine, but this will be Blue Origin’s first shot at the sci-fi feat.High seas last week caused the New Glenn launch to be pushed back several days.Meanwhile, the rocket’s upper stage will fire its engines toward Earth orbit, reaching a maximum altitude of roughly 12,000 miles above the surface.A Defense Department-funded prototype of an advanced spaceship called Blue Ring, which could one day journey through the solar system, will remain aboard for the roughly six-hour test flight.Blue Origin has experience landing its New Shepard rockets — used for suborbital tourism — but they are five times smaller and land on terra firma rather than a ship at sea.Physically, the gleaming white New Glenn dwarfs SpaceX’s 230-foot Falcon 9 and is designed for heavier payloads.It slots between Falcon 9 and its big sibling, Falcon Heavy, in terms of mass capacity but holds an edge with its wider payload fairing, capable of carrying the equivalent of 20 moving trucks.- Slow v fast development -Blue Origin has already secured a NASA contract to launch two Mars probes aboard New Glenn. The rocket will also support the deployment of Project Kuiper, a satellite internet constellation designed to compete with Starlink.For now, however, SpaceX maintains a commanding lead, while other rivals — United Launch Alliance, Arianespace, and Rocket Lab — trail far behind.Like Musk, Bezos has a lifelong passion for space.But where Musk dreams of colonizing Mars, Bezos envisions shifting heavy industry off-planet onto floating space platforms in order to preserve Earth, “humanity’s blue origin.”If New Glenn succeeds, it will provide the US government “dissimilar redundancy” — valuable backup if one system fails, said Scott Pace, a space policy analyst at George Washington University.

Blue Origin eyes early Tuesday launch but weather an issue

Blue Origin, the space company founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, hopes to launch its huge new rocket early Tuesday morning, but has flagged lousy overnight weather could mean a scrubbed lift-off for a second straight day.The inaugural launch of the towering 320-foot (98-meter) rocket, dubbed New Glenn in honor of legendary American astronaut John Glenn, had been initially scheduled during a three-hour window starting at 1:00 am (0600 GMT) Monday.After repeated stalls in the countdown, the launch was ultimately called off, with the company later saying it had discovered an issue related to “ice forming in a purge line on an auxiliary power unit” for some hydraulic systems.Blue Origin said it would aim for another three-hour window beginning at 1:00 am Tuesday, but warned “poor weather forecast at LC-36” — its launch site at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida — “could result in missing this window.”With the mission, dubbed NG-1, Amazon founder Bezos is taking aim at the only man in the world wealthier than him: fellow tech innovator Elon Musk.Musk’s company SpaceX dominates the orbital launch market through its prolific Falcon 9 rockets, which have become vital for the commercial sector, Pentagon and NASA.Bezos, who founded Blue Origin in 2000 and celebrated his 61st birthday Sunday, watched Monday’s events unfold from the nearby launch control room. Musk, for his part, wished Blue Origin “Good luck!” on X.”SpaceX has for the past several years been pretty much the only game in town, and so having a competitor… this is great,” G. Scott Hubbard, a retired senior NASA official, told AFP, expecting the competition to drive down costs.Upping the high-stakes rivalry, SpaceX plans another orbital test of Starship — its gargantuan new-generation rocket — later this week.- Landing attempt -When New Glenn does fly, Blue Origin will attempt to land the first-stage booster on a drone ship stationed about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) downrange in the Atlantic Ocean.SpaceX has made such landings now routine, but this will be Blue Origin’s first shot at a touchdown on the high seas.Meanwhile, the rocket’s upper stage will fire its engines toward Earth orbit, reaching a maximum altitude of roughly 12,000 miles above the surface.A Defense Department-funded prototype of an advanced spaceship called Blue Ring, which could one day journey through the solar system, will remain aboard for the roughly six-hour test flight.Blue Origin has experience landing its New Shepard rockets — used for suborbital tourism — but they are five times smaller and land on terra firma rather than a ship at sea.Physically, the gleaming white New Glenn dwarfs SpaceX’s 230-foot Falcon 9 and is designed for heavier payloads.It slots between Falcon 9 and its big sibling, Falcon Heavy, in terms of mass capacity but holds an edge with its wider payload fairing, capable of carrying the equivalent of 20 moving trucks.- Slow v fast development -Blue Origin has already secured a NASA contract to launch two Mars probes aboard New Glenn. The rocket will also support the deployment of Project Kuiper, a satellite internet constellation designed to compete with Starlink.For now, however, SpaceX maintains a commanding lead, while other rivals — United Launch Alliance, Arianespace, and Rocket Lab — trail far behind.Like Musk, Bezos has a lifelong passion for space.But where Musk dreams of colonizing Mars, Bezos envisions shifting heavy industry off-planet onto floating space platforms in order to preserve Earth, “humanity’s blue origin.”If New Glenn succeeds, it will provide the US government “dissimilar redundancy” — valuable backup if one system fails, said Scott Pace, a space policy analyst at George Washington University.

Will White House be big enough for Trump — and Musk?

Donald Trump will be the one taking the presidential oath next week, but in some respects, billionaire Elon Musk might as well place his hand on the Bible too.In an unprecedented relationship for modern US history, Trump will be heading into the White House shadowed by an advisor who is not only the world’s richest person but matches the incoming president in terms of wild ambition, hard-right politics, and media influence.Will the Oval Office be big enough for two outsized personalities, let alone the mountain of conflicts of interest trailing Musk?It’s a political marriage that was sealed by Musk’s bankrolling of Trump’s third tilt at the US presidency.The duo have an extraordinary collective power over messaging, with Musk turning his X social media platform into a haven for right-wingers and Trump enjoying friendly coverage from an entire conservative media ecosystem.They also share a love for provocative theatrics.”Like Trump, Musk recognizes the value of getting attention for saying and doing things that some people see as outrageous… he likes challenging norms,” said Margaret O’Mara, a history professor at the University of Washington.Musk has made quite the impact with the once and future president, according to Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs.”Elon Musk is rich, and brash, and he is constantly reminding Donald Trump how wonderful Donald Trump is — which are all things Donald Trump likes,” Loge said.- Cutting and slashing -However, Lorenzo Castellani, a history professor at Rome’s Luiss Guido Carli, warns that “the chances of friction being generated in the long run are high.”Musk has been named in charge of a plan to slash federal spending and regulations. The ambitious plans are popular with right-wing ideologues but the Trump camp has not explained how such sweeping changes would avoid conflicts of interest, given that Musk is a major government contractor.Even before Trump’s inauguration — he takes the oath on January 20 — Musk appears to be running into his first doses of political reality.The Tesla and SpaceX boss had initially vowed to chop a highly improbable $2 trillion in government spending, but now says “we’ve got a good shot” at saving $1 trillion.Even that would be a colossal undertaking, with the government’s budget about $7 trillion overall — making such dramatic cuts difficult without losing crucial services or benefits.The South African native, 53, has appeared almost omnipresent with Trump since the November election.Musk has joined Trump’s meetings with business leaders and foreign delegations. The duo are frequently photographed dining together and even dancing together to campy classic “YMCA” on New Year’s Eve.According to Castellani, Musk’s close relationship with the incoming president recalls those of the “robber barons” of the late 19th and 20th centuries — men like Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie and JP Morgan — “who had enormous economic power and political influence.”Like his predecessors, Musk is using his political clout to protect his interests.He has used X, formerly Twitter, to boost far-right movements and start online fights in Europe.In Britain, where lawmakers adopted new restrictions on social networks, Musk has brutally attacked Prime Minister Keir Starmer including calling for his ouster.He has repeatedly praised Germany’s far-right party AfD, while criticizing the European Commission, as Brussels threatens X with a hefty fine.- Tech bros -Other businessmen have flocked to Trump’s orbit, echoing Musk’s libertarian, small government views.But the rise of the American oligarchs is stirring tensions within the right, where “Make America Great Again” stalwarts see the wealthy powerbrokers as symbols of the very globalization they thought Trump was going to combat.Silicon Valley businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk’s co-chair in the government efficiency effort, created a firestorm when he spoke out in defense of a visa program allowing highly skilled workers into the United States.The son of Indian immigrants lambasted what he called an “American culture” that has “venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long.”This did not sit well with traditional Trump backers.”We welcomed the tech bros when they came running our way to avoid the 3rd grade teacher picking their kid’s gender,” Florida Republican Matt Gaetz wrote on social media.”We did not ask them to engineer an immigration policy.”

Trump’s return threatens resurgence of trade wars

Donald Trump’s second presidential term promises a return to tariffs as he pressures partners and rivals to tackle everything from migration to drug trafficking, while protecting US industries — in moves that could trigger new trade wars.Even before taking office, Trump has raised the prospect of fresh levies on companies, countries and groups of states as he seeks to implement his agenda.He has vowed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China until they crack down on fentanyl and border crossings, and he threatened “economic force” against Ottawa after suggesting Canada should become the 51st US state.Trump also warned of 100 percent tariffs on BRICS nations — a bloc including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — if they create a rival to the US dollar.New trade wars could rock the global economy, worsen tensions with Beijing and upend ties with allies.US manufacturers, farmers and small business owners await his first moves, girding for higher import costs on anything from batteries to wines, while bracing for retaliation.”I’m not necessarily against all tariffs,” said Mark Pascal, a restaurant owner based in New Jersey.He said he understands the rationale of taxing a country that unfairly suppresses prices.But “we’re concerned about any tariff that would apply broadly to wine and spirits, which is an industry that is not unfairly competing in any way,” added Francis Schott, who co-runs restaurants with Pascal.Trump introduced a range of duties in his first term, including on steel and aluminum, and on Chinese imports as he waged an all-out trade war on the world’s second biggest economy.In 2019, he imposed tariffs on European food and drinks as Washington and Brussels clashed over aviation subsidies.While these were later suspended, restaurateurs worry their return would batter small establishments.”It raised our costs, so it raised our prices,” said Pascal.- Global impact -Trump has used tariffs as a bargaining tool and will probably do so again, said Joshua Meltzer of the Brookings Institution.But China is signaling pushback and Europe is more prepared policy-wise, he told AFP.Governments appear to have “reached a similar conclusion that they are better off threatening retaliation at least at this stage, rather than capitulating,” Meltzer added.EY chief economist Gregory Daco warned that tariffs and other measures could tip the world economy into stagflation — stagnation with elevated inflation — if pursued to their fullest.Trump’s other promises include an across-the-board levy of 10 percent or more, with a steeper rate on China.- Growth risks -Domestically, Trump has touted tariffs as a means to protect US manufacturing, coupled with policies like tax cuts and deregulation that he says will spur growth.His Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent said in a November interview that tariffs would not be inflationary even if there were a “one-time price adjustment.”But Daco estimates higher import costs could lift consumer price inflation by 1.2 percentage points after a year.”The long-run impact is that it shrinks the US economy and it reduces the value of our incomes,” said Erica York of the Tax Foundation.While the Congressional Budget Office estimated a uniform 10 percent hike and added 50 percent on Chinese goods would slash deficits, this could also lower real GDP.- Emergency? -Analysts expect Trump could implement tariffs quickly using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.This allows the president to regulate imports during a national emergency, although it could be hindered by lawsuits.A tried-and-tested method would be the trade law, with Trump previously using Section 301 as justification for tariffs.But this takes more time as it calls for a government probe.He could also use Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to hike tariffs on goods with national security implications.